Extinction or Adaptation?
3dogmama (1967 points) | Sat, 2010-02-06 16:17DTP may have made designers’ lives easier, but it also set us up for the ripple effect.
First to go (in my time) were the phototypesetters.
Next the film strippers and darkroom camera operators.
Next...us?
After us, the printers? Is Kindle just the tip of the iceberg?
We need to learn how to adapt in this new work environment. And we need to learn how to PDQ.
"Art -- the one achievement of Man which has made the long trip up from all fours seem well advised." - James Thurber
Darwin reigns.
Ronaldo! xD
When they teach a machine how to design - then I'll worry.
Agree about the evolution bit and the lack of an imagination in a computer, but how do you foresee our trade going? Ivan had commented on the eventual demise of the big ad agencies in response to qwertyale's HP logo-in-a-box link...
"Art -- the one achievement of Man which has made the long trip up from all fours seem well advised." - James Thurber
That would depend on what you see as our trade.
Design, and what it means, will continue to shift and change as it has since the trade began (though perhaps more rapidly). It is up to us as individuals how (or whether) we change with it.
I would say that there are more opportunities for designers than ever, but it's now a harder sell for each of us. Whereas companies previously just knew they needed designers to put together a website or a brochure (or a magazine) they now question that.
In effect, designers formerly had a monopoly on a portion of the communication process. That monopoly has gone (or is in the process of vanishing), to the benefit communication as a whole, but it doesn't mean that there is any less of a requirement, or an opportunity, for designers.
The web is introducing a whole slew opportunities for designers to explore new methods of communication. Digital media, whether it be e-books or on-line magazines can be enhanced and re-imagined in ways that we can't yet comprehend - though the hard sell I mentioned above comes in to play here (ie, how do you justify the time or cost employed to achieve the result).
Templating, whether through a flexible system such as Apple's iWork suite or a more fixed system like a Wordpress or Drupal temple has to be designed in the first place. In fact any automated system that outputs a 'designed' result offers opportunities for designers to bring their expertise to bear (or continue to (re)learn their trade).
So, as I say, it depends on what you see as our (or more importantly for you, 'your') trade, and how willing and able you are to change as it does.
100% print for 25 years, including litho, flex and web. I have just begun Dreamweaver to include websites in my service offerings--haven't worked web design since Adobe Pagemill.
My clients still require brochures, trade show booths, logo designs, promo giveaways, etc. etc., but as a designer I know I need to be diversified for the constant changing playing field.
I've also begun developing products for the area I reside in, but there again it will require learning an entirely new arm of design, specifically industrial design, plus securing patents, working with manufacturers, etc. etc.
Thank god I enjoy being busy...
"Art -- the one achievement of Man which has made the long trip up from all fours seem well advised." - James Thurber
As always - this is jmho - but I don't see how advertising/design can be canned. Okay, I buy my logo thru HP - now what? I want a marketing plan. I want ideas on who and how to sell my product. Can that be done over the internet? If I'm spending $10K on a marketing idea - do I want to be dealing with someone who's not only not in the same room - he's not even in my city? He knows nothing about me or my company - he can't come here and walk around, talk to people, get an idea of what we do and why. What does he know about my city? The place where my product is being sold? I live in a very unique place - there's no other city like it on the planet - how can some guy in Silicon Valley be a better choice for my design needs than someone who's right here and knows the situation? And what about the pricing? Those HP offerings are not exactly $14 logos - they're priced in the range of a graphic artist starting out up to someone who's been in the business for awhile. So the price break is not even that enticing. How do I know they actually have "10 designers" working on my logo? If that's true, what are they saying? That each artist is only making $50 for his contribution to the design? So how concerned is that "artist" that I get something that fits my needs? What about revisions? I only get 2 revisions? What if the logo is still not satisfying after those 2 revisions? Does that mean I get bumped up to the next level and pay more money? See what I'm saying? Same with Ivan's proposal btw. I'd do any of those logos he's showing for $500 (or less) - so what kind of "deal" are people actually getting by going this route? A non-personalized, borderline "professional" logo for almost the same amount you'd spend anyway.
Generally, I see all these quantity sales ideas as having basically the same market - the cheapskates. These are the clients I don't want anyway. They're twice as much trouble - twice as hard to please and they take twice as long to make up their minds. Then they spend the least amount of money possible and b!tch about it the whole time. So - if anything - Ivan and HP are doing me a favor. The next time one of these "clients" wants a $50 logo from me - I'll send them Ivan's way. :-)
I remember when Dell started their brazilian operation, all of my friends agreed that they come to sell computers for mainstream corporative target, they wouldn't sell computers to domestic customers... I want to say they are executing BIG PLANS while we're discussing here.
OK, I'm not saying H.I.B. "HP-in-black" agents xD will invade your small town next month with logo expertise under their arms, I feel that as we're surprising with Ivan's enterprising, some big wave are coming like a tsunami.
I think it's positive about employees, they (us) only will offer they works to big agencies. NOT ALL, but a big amount of us. Some of us would be a H.I.B. xD
There is time enough for us but I AGREE on some signs... I'm not predicting, It's a crude analysis that any mainframe could show us xD.
I like to read Gilles Lipovetsky's analysis and I'm still waiting for something like this on his next books. He entered at fashion world on last books, maybe he could get interest about design.
Ivan's Logo Stock idea could improve (designers always have creativity to do it better) as he show us on first day (for us) on air. That's the reason I can't judge Ivan's business but I think we can help him with ideas and follow this case very close.
Ivan needs to think big but need to be a good center-field player at this moment and it's exactly what he done.
I'm very curious about his project. It's better to think positive and not say that each one is the owner of the truth.
Ronaldo! xD
Soon we will have softwares that will crack communication materials from logos to advertising. At the beginning these softwares will be dumb and ridiculous. But in 10 years they will be better than the average professional today. How do we deal with that? I can't say I'm afraid, but I can say that it makes me uncomfortable.
I think it's more likely that logos or advertising will change so far from what we currently understand and have that our current methods simply won't work.
Perhaps this is more obvious for advertising where things like referrals and ratings can hold more sway than elements of creative, but that in itself will have an effect on logos, brands and company perceptions.
I think that, unless we create 'thinking machines' of one sort or another, the stock trade of a designer, which is thinking through the unknown and linking the previously unlinked, won't be challenged. It may be changed, augmented or re-framed though.
Yes, I agree. Online communities will make or break a brand.
Fellas... come on. Think of what you're saying. In order for a computer to design a logo, it would need at least TWO capabilities that are so far out we can't even estimate when they will actually happen...
1) Artificial intelligence. You guys already touched on this - this would be the first hurdle.
2) Computers would have to not only think (logic, reasoning, etc...) they would also have to THINK LIKE HUMANS. They would have to understand things like humor, allusion, history, emotion, coincidence, etc...
Number 2 is not going to happen in our lifetimes imho. But let me remind you of a couple predictions with a much lower bar that were already predicted and have failed to appear (so far)... In the late 80s/early 90s it was the "paperless office". Remember that one? Anyone been to a paperless office lately? Sure - we're on the way - but the journey is a LOT longer than everyone predicted. The other would be a related item - how the web is going to wipe out the print industry. Quite the opposite. The more web/computer related stuff out there - the more manuals, magazines, textbooks, etc... they need to explain it. People were telling me for years I should get out of print. Meanwhile, I cant slow the print work down enough to even learn a web design program.
I agree, it may not happen in our life-time. It's hard to imagine it will happen. But think about it. 100 years ago it was impossible to imagine to be able to make a conversation for two people from the middle of the desert and the middle of the ocean with a small device. Also, it was impossible to imagine 50 years ago that you would be able to look up any information within seconds from anywhere in the world in full color. We've got the tools and information online, now the challenge to make sense of it all. We've taken small steps but the rate of development is increasing.
I had a company 2 years ago and I made sure we do not print anything. The only papers in the business were required by government agencies. We used less than a 200 sheet pack in one year. As government shifts to paperless operation the companies can be purely paperless. So paperless office kinda happened already.
Magazines are dropping readership at an alarming rate. Most of them closed. Others lost 50% of their off-line readers. With the tablets they will lose even more readers. Then come the books, textbooks, etc. Paper is here to stay for another 50 years though.
That's the exciting thing about the future, you have no idea about what's going to happen. Some dude might might invent something that puts the vision from your imagination to straight pixels, or we could be hit by some meteor, disabling all electric devices for the next 500 years. Whatever, you get the point ;p
http://jackmancer.com/
http://twitter.com/jackmancer
We've definitely gotten away from paper in some respects. Like you - I only go thru one or two reams of paper a year whereas 10 years ago I was buying 3 different sizes in bulk along with special requests, etc... The internet and pdfs have gone a long way towards reducing the paperwork - but most offices in my area are nowhere near "paperless" imho.
So far as publications, we're in the middle of the worst recession in decades and one of my clients is starting a new edition of his paper next month. Maybe Australia is different, but where I am there are a lot more publications now than there were even 5 years ago. It's so easy and cheap to publish and target an audience with all this technology we have. Print has been around for thousands of years - the Kindle won't kill it.
Where are you in Australia? I'm on the Gold Coast.
I was referring to you. I'm in the US.
Sorry, I misread.
On second thoughts, maybe you are right: How long til human-level AI (hplusmagazine.com).
Though, thinking on from your point about 'inteligent software' and adding the AI angle - the problem isn't going to be 'how do we compete as designers', it is going to be 'what do we do as human beings when machines do our thinking, work, etc'.
I can think of a few things...work on my backstroke while my SVEN-MODEL#69 brings me Russians dockside, performs midday body massages, and rolls my party favours. I may be a sponged-out Jaba the Hut by the end of it but how decadent...
"Art -- the one achievement of Man which has made the long trip up from all fours seem well advised." - James Thurber
Definitely - and I think that our first task as designers is to work out how we can be a beneficial part of this new world (and to view it as exciting rather than just daunting).
I'm more then happy to begin the challenge against some cheap-ass logo site, computer generated design or whatever. Bring it on!
http://jackmancer.com/
http://twitter.com/jackmancer
That's the spirit!
Finally something true from a MacHead!
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I am not Steve Ballmer pretending not to be me!
The more things change, the more they stay the same...
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I have adapted by installing LED lamps in my overhead projector. And since I confiscated it for improper use, Daphne, my secretary, uses a Magna Doodle instead of the Xerox Model A we have in the stationery cupboard.
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You might wish to add Lite-Brite to your arsenal for those crucial client presentations.
"Art -- the one achievement of Man which has made the long trip up from all fours seem well advised." - James Thurber
@ Art: I hear what you’re saying about the strategic marketing end of things and thus the survival of the traditional ad agency. We all know marketing knowledge and design expertise cannot be neatly packaged and sold off the shelves. We are paid for those WOW concepts.
I also agree with you on most respects about KNOWING your client...some of my best work has come from a heavy night of sketching, drinking and smoking with a favourite client. But I’ve found now that I’m living in a remote area I can’t be that face-to-face designer to some people. I have acclimatized to my environment and now service some clients whom I’ve only ever ‘met’ online...and it’s not working out all that bad...
@qwertyale: I agree with you that Ivan is trying to look down the road to adapt to our ever-changing industry. And as you said, no one person can foresee how all is going to play out...we may even be shredded apart by jackmancer's meteor...it's all a crap shoot.
I think I've reached the point in my career where I still need and love to design, but I'm just tired of trying to explain to potential new clients why I charge more than the $50 logo person. In fact, just last week, I basically told one of these potentials to piss off.
And it felt good.
Onwards and upwards. I'd rather use my time in a more beneficial manner...not pandering to cheapskates.
"Art -- the one achievement of Man which has made the long trip up from all fours seem well advised." - James Thurber
That summs up exactly what I was facing a few months ago! :)
The lessons I learned were:
Any other good lessons for working as a 21st century designer?
it comes down to this for me.
the best designers have *always* been consultants as much as production artists. what we're talking about here is how production occurs, not how design itself occurs. remember that the true value the designer brings to the table is concept, not just production.
so no matter what the media, the people who only do production always make less than the people who create the concepts and then produce them.
design will continue. it will adapt. i don't think printing/paper will go away anywhere near as soon as some of you do. we will just adapt what and how we handle printing. what's been happening over the past 20 years (and this is *after* the original predicted demise of paper) is that we've had a significant shift from large-run ink printing to short-run digital printing. people are producing more work at the <500 quantity and less work at the >50k quantity. work is shifting from larger-scale mass-production to smaller-scale targeted production.
and it will shift again. who knows what it will shift to, but i don't think print is dead yet. it's just different.
http://www.wspromotion.com/
"Art -- the one achievement of Man which has made the long trip up from all fours seem well advised." - James Thurber
looking at that web site, it's hard to believe they employ a real designer... ;)
LOL!
"Art -- the one achievement of Man which has made the long trip up from all fours seem well advised." - James Thurber
"Fax Broadcast Advertising"!
Totally illegal in my state.
"When you stop to learn, you start to die".
Progress depends on learning.
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Wrong!
Progress depends on market segment domination!
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I am not Steve Ballmer pretending not to be me!
Everyday is a learning process. Progress depends on how effort you exerts and that effort has a strong goals and determination. Thanks..