Computing experience of the future
Ivan | Thu, 2005-07-21 20:01I have Google Suggest as my starting page in my browser. It loads fast and it reminds me that we are on the edge of a major change as far as how we use our computers. Being in Singapore, which is a city of the future I had some inspiring thoughts about what lies ahead what our computing experience will be.
This year AJAX will change the way we use and interact with the web. Desktop applications and web applications will start to become tightly integrated.
In OS X within a year, just like Webdav (iDisk) is an integral part of Finder, all other iApps will work both on and off line at the same time.
Even now you see some features like iTMS and Podcast built into iTunes. But this is just the beginning. I can see a Flickr like on-line applicaton built into iPhoto. I can see the difference between pop/imap mail and webmail blur. It will be just mail. Spotlight will feature Google hits. Your Safari bookmarks will be featured on deli.cio.us. Google maps will be accessible as a hover on any address. Etc.
In Leopard iApps will start to merge. Email, iPhoto, iTunes and such will become tabs within one big application. Why have an email button in iPhoto and have an attach image button in Email when you can just drag and drop within one app. And all this can be done from anywhere from the world. You just log-in to your OS X and do your stuff. It's technically possible today, it just takes time to develop it.
Within two years Apple will be the biggest Video on demand provider in the world.
Within three years more 90% of the internet users will have broadband and a significant number of users will have speeds equivalent to current local networks. Apple's iVideo will be standard in every room in every hotel of the world.
In 2010 Macs will not have hard disks anymore. HDs will be replaced by iPod shuffle like memory chips that are measured in terrabytes making these Macs the fastest desktop computers of the time.
In the post Leopard OS's called OS XI 11.X all applications actually disappear as we know them. There will be just one interface system which is a merged version of the OS, iApps and more.
Within 6 years the whole interface structure as we know it will change drastically. We will not have windows and icons as we know them. It's going to change the experience as much as Windows changed the interaction for DOS users 20 years ago. I can tell you what it's gonna be, but I would rather spare your life. :)
By now MS with Longhorn SP2 will not be the single major OS anymore. Longhorn will be struggling it's way to compete, but will still be a market leader. OS X and many different flavours of Linux will be strong competitors especially in high-tech industry sectors.
I believe Apple will not be the one to invent the next interface breakthrough, but they will be the ones who implement several ideas coming from different great companies, such as Sony and IBM into a usable system that will include some brand new ideas as well. We are finally getting rid of the mouse and the keyboard at this point as our main input interface.
Microsoft will closely follow with their version of the same story, but it will not be as successful as Longhorn or any other versions of Windows. They will finally lose their long standing leading role in OS market share and shift their resources to other areas.
Naming the next Mac OS X codename being Tiger was an easier task for sure, but I think we can be sure of one thing: next generation Intel chip speeds will come in handy with the new CPU hungry applications.
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aww all sorts of weird stuff comes from the net.. Bt it is really just still info. I still want my minority report mouse ::P
workys --->> http://filmsandwich.com/
just kiddin!
well i see a lot's of potencial of web-based programing languages and i guess that the maior companies will understand this!
I see web-standart-ed website everywere!
I disagree with you on the iApps. I think they're moving to the point where the iApp functionality will be built into the Finder, or whatever they use in 10.5 / 10.6. Rather than launching e.g. iPhoto you'll simply go to your photos directory and the Finder will display extra toolbars for you to use. Go look at Directory Opus (http://www.dopus.com/ Windows only) for how you can do some stuff like that today :)
Using Automator we'll be able to easily script even more complicated workflows and OSX will come bundled with a large array of basic scripts for people to use as templates. Want all of your images resized & uploaded to mac.com when you copy them from a camera - no probs, we have a script for that already, and it even notifies your aunt Ethel.
2006 should be a fun year - x86 Macs and 10.5 :-)
But I doubt any of them will play out the way you think, or in the time frame stated.
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Unless I'm not understanding what you're saying, they allready do that.
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There are several plug-ins available that already integrate them now.
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It kind of already is. I use Mail and it downloads all my mail from imap, pop and web mail. Again, maybe I'm misunderstanding what you're saying.
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Yeeeaaahhhh, riiiiiight! It'll be at least 2 years before the service is anything more than a wet dream for the mainstream population. Of course, they could become the biggest provider, but being the biggest provider in a tiny/limited market isn't hard to do. The bandwidth just isn't available for this one to become a reality within two years.
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Don't count on it. Cox Communications is a huge provider here in the U.S. and they're also a client of mine. I have access to their 3, 5 and 10 year forecasts, both for themselves and the industry as a whole. I can tell you that it'll be at least another 5 years before even 50% of internet users have broadband in this country... which is YEARS ahead of every other country in the world.
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LMAO!!!
Overall, most of those things are nifty ideas, and *could* come true some day, but nowhere near the timeframes stated... nowhere near!
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Um... some people seem to disagree with you on the broadband issue:
http://www.clickz.com/stats/sectors/broadband/article.php/3463191
But you have to ask yourself who is most likely to have more accurate numbers.
On one hand you have a large Cable and Fiber provider who would love nothing more than to get everyone off dial-up and on a minimum of DSL, if not cable, telling you that they're not there yet.
ON the other hand you have a small online company who makes money by telling marketing companies (including spammers) what they're payed to and want to hear, which is "go ahead, send giant graphic-filled emails... they're all on broadband."
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Thats a good point, but doesn't leave a definitive answer either way. I've read other polls besides Nielsen (wish I could remember whom, but it was 6 months ago).
I'd be curious to see the scope of Cox's stats. We don't have Cox up here in seattle, but I've heard of them (my parents use them down in AZ). So...that leaves me to wonder, what regions do they cover, and are those statistics meant to describe their current coverage area?
This is a great topic I think, SUCH a vital number to know and understand as it effects our designs (if you're a web designer at all) drastically. I've been thinking a lot about what someone said at a MS conference on what Vista will mean. He mentioned that designers seem to be designing for the lowest common denomenator (thanks IE) and that Vista should help change that. Broadband is just one piece of that.....I'm VERY excited to see some more advancements beyond broadband. I just ordered wireless broadband 400-700k. This means I have near broadband all over Seattle...DOPE!
- Jeff Yamada
www.suborior.com
But I can tell you what's public knowledge, which is that Cox is one of the nation's largest providers, and they sublease their lines to other companies, so while you don't recognize their name in Seattle, you *may* actually be using their lines up there, just from another company.
The "projection" numbers I have access to include existing lines, lines under construction now, and lines planned for the future, as well as projected subscriber growth based on past numbers. While this is of course not 100% accurate, it's far more accurate than a research firm who simply uses "Polls" of particular markets and Web stats of particular Web sites to arrive at their statistics.
That being said, it also doesn't take into account new technologies between now and then. Two years ago, 9Mbps cable lines were nothing more than a wet dream, but I can get that speed right now for about $70 per month at home if I wanted to pay that much. Who knows what new technologies will become available, but judging by the projections, no radical changes in speed vs. cost are coming anytime soon. Sure, prices will continue to come down and speed going up, but that's at a normal pace... it certainly isn't going to change the world in less than 3 years.
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Maybe I'm just surrounded with too much "we're gonna change the world" mentality here at work (MS) but 3 years seems like a few decades to me.
You're right, projections aren't based on what might be hitting the market in the next few years, I'm curious about this wireless broadband emergence, I wonder if it will take hold. With wireless phones being so common I wonder if it will pick up faster than expected.
Widespread wireless broadband is what I'm interested in seeing. What we need is more companies like Starbucks, Barnes & Noble, etc... to adopt it nationwide. Other similar stores will surely follow to maintain customers. If we can get wireless into the smaller stores, larger companies will follow. Once that happens, I would imagine we *might* see the day when there's a wireless router or repeater on top of every other power pole and it'll be beamed right into your house (if they can improve the range a bit more).
That would be cool! Of course, the damn government will get their grubby hands involved long before then and mess it up for everyone.
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Verizon and Cingular offer mobil 24/7 connections to varying speeds of the net...shouldn't be too long before its more common. Right now both of them offer plans around $80.
Its only in select cities I'm sure...but still freakin cool. Can you imagine chatting in realtime on a bus? no more slow pda crap....pure freedom.
Since we're diving into the speculation of tech:
http://www.albinoblacksheep.com/flash/epic
Terrell Thornhill
e-zign Design Group
that was pretty cool yo. the chick voice towards the end sounded like one of my co-workers.
cars will actually fly.
I do like the idea of iApps in one big tabbed application (except for iTunes - I think it should stay seperate).
But with the introduction of Dashboard - most importantly the preferences on the backside of the widget - what I would REALLY like to see is multi-pane applications based on the same idea.
Imagine if applications themselves had a little button in the corner, and when you clicked it, the window spun around to reveal another side. This side could be preferrences for that application, or new options, or an entirely different application all together.
This would be sweet with an iApps application. Open it, have mail on one side, spin the cube and get iPhoto on the next, then iMovie, etc.
I don't know about iApps ever merging into one, but I think it will only be a matter of time before "Windows" become sides of "Cubes" which can be flipped around to reveal new apps or settings. And until then, I CANT WAIT!
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